Open Road

Thursday Mar 4th 2010

Nick Clegg’s best idea so far

Monday Mar 1st 2010

The Tory future

Labour activists of a certain vintage still remember with horror the moment when David Amess retained Basildon in the 1992 election.  It was the first confirmation that the Labour lead in the polls had melted away and that John Major and his soapbox had won, despite the poll tax fiasco and a struggling economy.
Of course this story had a happy ending - at least for those activists.  Major’s majority of 21 proved to be insufficient to keep a stale Parliamentary party together and the Conservatives duly went down to a landslide defeat in 1997.  Tony Blair walked into a positive economic picture bequeathed to him by Major and Ken Clarke and his party has been in power ever since.
There are some parallels here which make unpleasant reading for David Cameron, but might just be good news for the Conservatives as a party.
Cameron seems to be struggling to pull away from Labour in the polls - or indeed to maintain any sort of lead at all.  It is at least possible that he will end up facing a minority Labour government kept in power by the absurdity of the electoral boundaries and the support of the LibDems.
But does that matter?  The new Brown administration would be weak.  The recession will not disappear.  A public conned once into thinking that Brown has the skill to save them from economic pain will be much less inclined to be fooled again.  And the LibDems are more than likely to pull their support when the going gets tough.  Because they’re like that.
Result:  a second relatively swift election at a period when the economy is recovering and people are feeling more optimistic and willing to bet on positive change.
Whether that Conservative landslide is one presided over by Cameron or not is an interesting question.  To hang on - if he wants to - Cameron will have to sack George Osborne, who will be blamed, however unfairly, for the failure to win.  If he cannot, will not, or simply does not want to try to hold on, then there are not many credible contenders to repalce him. 
But in this imaginary contest the Conservative party will undoubtedly revert to type.  If the heir of Blair has failed, then perhaps a more serious , heavyweight figure might be required. A sort of Brown-light, rugged but charming.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the next Conservative prime minister...David Davis! 

Thursday Feb 25th 2010

Shortlist Face Off

So in the ‘face off’ of interviews-ordered-by-their-press-offices-about-how-normal-they are, ‘Dave’ and ‘Gordon’ appeared in successive weeks in the free tubemag Shortlist (circulation: 462,731).
The early favourite was bound to be Cameron; and sadly for Gordon, despite including some photos of him jogging and heaving ‘like a normal guy’, ‘twas ever thus.  Briefed to the max, his answers to questions like ‘Do you have any favourite [films]?’ were just a little odd:
‘I think Cry Freedom was one of the great films.  Recently, I watched The Damned United, which is an amazing film about Leeds United.  It’s based on a book, which I’ve also read.  I’ve seen Invictus.  I saw State of Play recently too.’

Flashes of recent zeitgeist tapes perhaps, (or at least the one which guided his ‘coincidental’ inspiration from Morgan Freeman’s poem.)

Sensing this weakness, Shortlist gave us a suggestion box of how Gordon can improve his ‘likeability’, from authorities like ‘body language expert Robert Phipps, of Robertphipps.com’, and Colin Byrne of Weber Shandwick.  Sadly Gordon had no side piece from Toby Young, whose authoritative insights about Dave we were treated to last week.  (Perhaps Shortlist was unable to find someone to write about the time they saw Gordon look past them in the Junior Common Room.)

When faced with interviews like these it’s hard not to sharpen your scrutiny on the interviewers and their task of passing off a defiantly bland interview as hot copy - not very good news for Dave’s man and his endearing jokes about wearing a red tie (!).  Teed up by banter like ‘We hear you’re a big darts fan’, Dave scored bloke points with some great chat about his love for darts legends, canned Guinness and spit roasting.  Unfortunately for Gordon, the easiest questions seem to be the hardest.  On the other hand, in comparison with Dave’s darts, maybe most people would struggle explaining ‘Is it true your home town used to smell of Linoleum?’ with a wink and a smile.

Dave’s comparative strength in these areas is well known, so maybe he had an off day, but he seemed keen not to over his bloky creds.  Perhaps he knows, despite the work of publications such as Shortlist, that Gordon is right when he produces his best bite: ‘It’s character that matters in the end, not personality.’ If that’s the case, and considering the shameless blandity of these interviews, is it actually better to ‘lose’ these personality contests?  Bad for Shortlist, good for policies…

(Will we see ‘Nick’ next Thursday?)

Friday Feb 12th 2010

Most fanciable MPs, according to Sky..

Thursday Feb 4th 2010

Style over Substance

Tory communications have come under criticism recently and with good reason. 2010 has already seen a botched prison ships announcement (which only Andy Coulson seemed to know about) a U-turn on when marriage tax breaks would be introduced, and George Osborne’s announcement that Lord Stern would advise the party which was immediately denied by Stern himself.

All the more reason to point out when they’ve done something right, namely placing a fluffy profile piece of their newest MP, Chloe Smith in Stylist magazine. It’s a smart move for 3 reasons:

1. Women’s magazines don’t cover politics often or in much detail, but the Tory press team have managed to get 3 pages of dedicated coverage by deploying their assets well. Smith is young, photogenic, fashion conscious (a purple suit and oversized beads is hardly fashion forward, but this is politics) and a neat match for stylist’s demographic.

2. It’s a nice bit of brand building (or brand decontamination). Between a Work and Pensions Select Committee meeting and a photo shoot on Westminster bridge there were more than a few key messages detectable. We hear how liberal minded Chloe ‘doesn’t fit neatly with the widespread view of Conservative politicians’ and are told that Section 28 was ‘not our finest hour’. Personally, I found it bland and vapid, but maybe that’s because I already know what a select committee is. There’s no point in putting out policy papers every week if people’s general perception of the party is negative.

3. Stylist was a great pick. It’s got a circulation of 400,000 and free copies are distributed across London, Manchester and Brighton at train stations. People who have forgotten to bring a book onto public transport are a captive audience. I got onto the central line with no intention of reading that bloody article.