An autumn general election?
Writing in the Times, Peter Riddell has advised the Prime Minister not to make a decision on the date of the election in the heat of the party conference season. Riddell urged Mr Brown to remember that during the annual love-in of the conference circuit, “The atmosphere is too combustible for rational decision-making.”
With the BBC’s Nick Robinson forced to retract his comments that talk of an early election was “complete tosh”, the momentum for an autumn dash to the polls is undoubtedly growing. The Labour party has already begun advertising for election staff, whilst the Conservatives have let it be known that they have a draft manifesto, a £10 million war-chest and 200 ready-and-waiting candidates available for their key target seats.
The Ipsos-MORI poll in the 30th September edition of the Observer will have strengthened the argument of those in the Labour party who are pushing for an early election. Not only was the Government’s lead over the Conservatives maintained at a healthy 7 per cent, but 40 per cent of respondents stated they wanted a poll within weeks. Furthermore, 60 per cent said they would trust Brown in a crisis (compared to 13 per cent for Cameron), and an emphatic 71 per cent said they expected the Labour party to win a majority in the election, no doubt adding to the woes of the Liberal Democrats who have been banking on the prospect of a hung Parliament for some time now.
If reports in the press are accurate, Brown sat down with his inner circle on 30th September, armed with a wad of polling data. The decision he has to take – the “gamble”, as close friend Ed Balls called it – is whether the Government would lose more votes by waiting until next spring (or beyond) to go to the country than it would lose from the reluctance of Labour supporters to go to the voting booths in the dark and the cold of November.
Brown’s inner circle have let it be known that he will bide his time to make the decision until after Conservative Party Conference to see how the Tories fare in Blackpool. Labour insiders have suggested that a stellar performance from David Cameron might go some way to halt the early election juggernaut, whilst a poor showing would harden the argument for a poll this year. So, another forensic examination of the polls the weekend of 6th/7th October will be in order.
The Prime Minister has a difficult decision to make. The Labour Party is haunted by the memory of 1978, when Callaghan delayed the election only to be beaten by the Conservatives the next year, which consigned Labour to the wilderness for 18 years. Brown might never again be as popular as he is now – he will not want to risk watching his electoral advantage slip away.
But nor will he want to be remembered as the shortest-serving Prime Minister in over a century and repeat Harold Wilson’s mistake in 1970 of jumping the gun and losing the election. The mood in Bournemouth was buoyant: Labour Deputy Leader Harriet Harman claimed the Party was “more confident, more united, and more determined than before.” And this is precisely why Peter Riddell’s advice to tread carefully and ignore the temporary euphoria of party conference is so important. Because if Brown gets it wrong and goes on the basis of sentiment rather than common sense, he will have gambled not just his position but the last ten years of his political career.
Indicative timetable the general election
If a November election is what Brown wants, the speculation is focussing on 1st November as the leading contender. An indicative timeline of events should he opt for an election on this date is below, based both on the loudest rumours circulating Westminster at present, and the timetable that was used in the 2005 general election. This should, however, be treated with caution – very little, either about the date of the election or the timescales of the campaign, can be assumed at this stage.
8th October:
Parliament returns from Summer Recess.
Brown makes announcement on move to ‘overwatch’ status in Iraq, with all day-to-day responsibilities lying with the Iraqis, and a further UK troop drawdown.
9th October:
Should Brown opt for a 1st November election, present speculation is predicting that the Chancellor of the Exchequer will publish both the Pre Budget Report and the Comprehensive Spending Review next Tuesday.
Brown will then call the election date of 1st November and Parliament will be dissolved. At this point, the election campaign will officially begin, and MPs will cease to be MPs. All candidates will return to their constituencies.
The civil service will go into purdah, and no major Government announcements will be made unless they are essential. Ministers will remain in post, but their focus will be on re-election rather than on government.
NB All existing room bookings in Parliament are cancelled in the event of a general election. This is, however, a useful time to talk to civil servants, who will be operating at a much reduced level until a Government is elected.
Daily:
The Leaders and front bench spokespeople from all three parties will hold daily press conferences and embark on tours of the regions in order to ‘meet the people’ and unveil major policy initiatives.
Within a week of the dissolution of Parliament:
Publication of election manifestos. In 2005, the Conservatives published theirs first, followed by Labour and then the Liberal Democrats.
1st November:
General election held.
What happens thereafter, in terms of Cabinet reshuffles is, of course, contingent on whether Brown’s gamble to go early pays off. However, should Labour win the election outright, without having to rely on Liberal Democrat support in the event of a hung Parliament, we would expect limited change to the Government line-up after November.
A couple of weeks after the election:
Queen’s Speech and return of Parliament.
Brown has already pre-empted the Queen’s speech by announcing his legislative programme before MPs went into Recess. There aren’t any signs at present that a fresh mandate would encourage Brown to unleash a newly radical legislative programme, but this is, of course, subject to the size of his majority, and the signs from voters during the campaign.
New appointments to select committees should be made within a couple of months of the return of Parliament.
The Parliament formed after the general election would last until November 2008.