Cameron has not yet got it in the bag
The recent pieces in the Guardian on whether Labour can recover ground have been interesting as has the recent Guardian ICM poll putting the Tories on 42 per cent and Labour on 30.
A lot of commentators are suggesting that the Tories have the next general election in the bag, but this is not the case, not yet anyway.
We are mid-term and the Government has been in power for 12 years. We are in a massive recession. Any Opposition party should be in the lead by 15-20 points at a time like this.
And Labour will win back some of their core supporters as election day nears and the possibility of a Tory Government becomes more like a reality. That will be likely to lift Labour to 33 per cent or thereabouts and take the Tories back down under 40 per cent. That is hung Parliament territory.
Cameron has done an impressive job as Leader of the Opposition and the appalling tragic death of his disabled son will have helped to confirm in the electorate’s mind that he does understand the concerns of ordinary people despite his privileged upbringing.
But the Tories have definitely not ‘sealed the deal’. Their support is not as firm as it should be by now. When the Conservatives are scrutinised more and more carefully as polling day approaches at the end of this year and into spring 2010, more and more questions will be asked.
What will be fascinating is that if the polls remain like this, what will happen to the electorate when they have the prospect of a hung Parliament. Traditionally – as we saw in 1992 – the voters in the UK don’t like hung Parliaments and they can sometimes swing one way or the other just before polling day in a decisive way. In 1992, despite Labour’s consistent lead in the polls, the voters decided that did not trust Neil Kinnock and gave John Major five more years. By a strange coincidence that was an election that the Tories probably never wish that they had won. They won during a recession and they had no choice but to increase taxes massively and impose huge spending cuts in order to bring the public finances back into some semblance of order.
Remind you of anything?
Cameron has done well – but the Tories have a lot yet to do to ensure they have a high enough level of sustained public support to guarantee even a small overall majority.