Coming back in New Hampshire
Well, 5 days is a long time in American politics.
When I turned CNN off at 3.30 a.m. this morning, the final New Hampshire poll suggested that Senator Barack Obama had a double digit lead over Hillary Clinton. All day Monday the broadcast media aired segments highlighting the size of Obama crowds at varied events, pundits of all political complexions were noting the unique enthusiasm for the Illinois Senator and following - as they so often do - the front page of the NY Times querying whether or not Bill Clinton’s stump magic had finally dissipated. Talk shows speculated about “the end of an era” and “the passing of a torch.” “Panic” was the NY Post headline running over Mrs Clinton’s photo this morning.
24 hours later it is amusing to see the media scrambling to explain another improbable, unpredictable Clinton turn around.
Americans love comebacks but this Clinton victory has surprised most people.
How did she do it? It’s still too early to tell exactly.
We know that she won amongst women (which she didn’t manage in Iowa). We know she won amongst registered Democrats (but not independents). Was it because of the last minute outreach to young people? Was it because of the strength of their “turnout team” . We don’t know if Senator McCain took independent votes from Senator Obama. We do know those voters worried over the economy were more likely to vote for her, as were blue collar voters, the lower middle class and the working class. (P.S. If Barack Obama wants to be the nominee of the Democratic Party he needs support from these people - students and the chattering classes will not be enough).
We don’t know why the polls were so wrong, though it is going to be fun to see them skewered tomorrow. Did white New Hampshire voters mislead pollsters about their willingness to vote for an African-American candidate (there is precedent for that)? We don’t know if New Hampshire’s voters reacted against the post-Iowa Obama inevitability the media built up. Perhaps it was the already mythic “tearful” moment Hillary had yesterday afternoon. We do know that a number of voters didn’t actually decide how they would vote until today. Something changed their minds. What was it?
In the victory speech she just finished she said: “Thank you New Hampshire, in the last week I listened to you and in the process I found my own voice.”
And she seemed to. Looking at her just now she was surrounded by young people, young women. Her “moment” yesterday was the first time in the 20 years I have been paying attention to the Clinton’s that I felt I had a window into her humanity. She made it personal and we saw vulnerability. Already it is being said that she is taking over her own campaign.
And when we step back and look at the winners to date - Obama and Huckabee in Iowa, McCain in New Hampshire - the public (and please don’t forget that less than one half of one per cent of the national electorate has exercised their right to vote) has opted for idiosyncratic candidates, outsiders, individuals they respect or like. Until tonight it didn’t seem Hillary Clinton could compete on that front (reference the likeability exchange in Saturday’s debate). She may not be able to in the long run, but New Hampshire tonight – 16 years later – was Clinton Country once again.
“Mac is Back”
But it is also McCain country. And John McCain – 8 years after drubbing then Governor Bush in this same primary – also found his voice again in New Hampshire, thousands of miles from the Arizona plains where he built his career. And in many ways his victory is even more startling a comeback than Senator Clinton.
Once the frontrunner, John McCain’s connection to the war in the Iraq and his unpopular position (with conservatives in his own party) on illegal immigration saw him first lose support, than lose the ability to raise money and then lose advisers. Forced to go back to basics, shed the poll led strategy he had adopted, he rolled the dice on New Hampshire revitalizing his effort, and it has.
McCain’s support for the war in Iraq turned off many Reagan Democrats and independents who felt he sacrificed his critical voice so he could launch a Presidential bid. But as the war went south he took on Secretary Rumsfeld, he criticized a strategy that was based on small numbers of troops and called for greater resources. These were not popular positions but he was clearly sincere in believing them. On torture and Guantanamo Bay he took on the Vice President and won. On immigration he led a bi-partisan effort for new legislation even as it was obviously destroying his support from the base of the Republican party.
New Hampshire loves contrarians and comebacks and it rewarded Senator McCain tonight. Governor Romney’s flip flopping hurt him here (I think he is the first New England politician to lose a N.H. primary). He isn’t done yet, he has too much money to be forced out this early, but a loss in Michigan to Senator McCain would be crippling. He thought he could win Iowa, N.H. and Michigan to propel him to the February 5th primaries. To lose all of them would raise fundamental questions about his candidacy. He seems unable to convince voters that he is authentic.
Democrats should be worried about John McCain as their opponent. For months now I have been telling people not to underestimate him. He has character, moral authority and – as the oldest Presidential nominee ever (if he got it) – experience. If Senator Obama was the Democratic nominee they would offer the starkest choice.
What next?
It has been 48 years since we have had two Senators running against each other for the Presidency of the United States, but it looks like we are heading that way. There is an irony in that, of course, as “change” has become the ubiquitous theme across all campaigns. No one seems able to agree on what “change” means or whether or not it trumps “experience”, complements it or fuels it. Expect that debate to be the fundamental one dividing Senators Obama and Clinton as well as Governor’s Huckabee and Romney and Senator McCain as we move to Michigan (Republicans), Nevada (Democrats) and South Carolina. Mayor Giuliani must win in Florida on the 29th to justify his decision to stay out of the fray so long. Huckabee will challenge him there.
And on the other side, we definitely have a race. Obama’s speech tonight was uplifting, his cadenced “Yes we can’s” echoing Martin Luther King jr again. Tonight may be good for him. Losing now is better than losing later. The rock star craziness of the past week almost certainly went to some people’s heads. Winning the nomination will require a determined, focused ground effort (fund raising, local communication and turnout management). It will not be won on grandiloquent speeches alone. I still think he can win but he will need to be more specific. Last night’s polls changed expectations in the media. Obama’s team will play smarter next time.
By the way, keep your eye on how all the candidates respond to the worsening economic news. Americans are worried about foreclosures and job losses, about the credit crunch and energy prices. Iraq and terror still loom large in the public consciousness, and it isn’t as narrow a “It’s the economy stupid” moment as it was in 1992 but, in my view, all of these candidates ignore this growing anxiety at their own peril. The personal pocketbook always matter.
On to Michigan.