London and local elections – the fallout
Massive losses for Labour. Boris beat Ken. Worst Labour election results for 40 years. 100 Labour MPs with marginal seats are getting nervous. Brown appears to be a loser and the economy is entering a downturn. Up next a possible By-election loss, votes on 42 days detention and the possibility of another vote on the 10 tax band.
So Cameron for Prime Minister?
Well it certainly looks far more likely than it ever has before. Until now, while you may have felt that Brown didn’t look like a winner, you were never necessarily sure that Cameron’s Tories had done enough to be outright winners.
Well they still haven’t done enough but that didn’t matter in these local and London mayoral elections. Even though Boris had very few policies and is not known at all for competence or ability to manage anything, dislike for Labour, dislike of Ken and ‘time for a change’ was enough.
Boris was well advised in this campaign by Lynton Crosby and others. Be serious, do not have too many new policies as they might unravel under questioning, focus on Ken’s cronyism and on time for a change. And go for the outer London boroughs where you can build on a stronger Tory bedrock of support.
The Tories were also helped by Andrew Gilligan and the Evening Standards’s constant drip drip of allegations about Ken’s cronyism, Lee Jasper and Ken’s personal life that was responsible for turning Ken’s initial poll lead into a significant Boris poll lead. Importantly, the Sun came out on Boris’ side. That is potentially hugely significant. It is the first time since 1992 that the Sun has backed the Tories. If Boris doesn’t mess up completely, it is now possible that some or all of the Murdoch papers could support the Tories at the next general election. Andy Coulson of Conservative Campaign HQ – take a bow.
Across the country, the Tories have done well in the local elections and have even started to re-enter the North of England. That is only a start for them, but an essential stepping stone.
Will these results be replicated in a general election in 2009 or - as looks increasingly likely - May or June 2010?
Labour support in a general election will not be as low as the 24 per cent in these elections. They were hurt in their heartlands this time by the 10 pence tax rate row and Brown will not make that mistake again (surely!). And in general elections where Labour supporters will not allow themselves the luxury of a protest vote, the core Labour vote will probably be 30 – 35 per cent.
That cuts the likely Tory lead significantly. Also, incumbent governments tend to reduce the lead of oppositions in the run up to a campaign. So the likely Tory vote would be (looking at it right now) between 38 – 42 per cent. And the Lib Dem vote held up pretty well and so the Tories may struggle a little to win all of the seats they might like to from Nick Clegg’s team.
Incidentally, the figures above mirror the long term trend of pollsters asking about Gordon Brown vs David Cameron.
So looking at the position right now, the Tories as the largest party is highly likely. A Tory government with a workable overall majority is a distinct possibility.