Not over yet
Spending most of last week in Washington DC one couldn’t help but be reminded that a week really can be a long time in politics and that American politics more often reflects a PT Barnum 3 ring event rather than Plato’s noble Republic.
And while the headlines seemed to scream something new every news cycle;
A hotel bombing in Islamabad, a car bomb in Syria, an assault in Yemen.
Further collapse in the financial markets.
An on again, off again deal between Congressional Democrats and Republicans to “bail out” Wall Street.
A “suspended"Presidential campaign (whatever that meant).
An on again, off again, finally on again Presidential debate.
Not much seemed to be changing.
Whether one was making their way up and down Washington’s corridors or watching cable news there seemed to be endless talk (even more than usual), lots of posturing (not to mention frowning and gesticulating), a bit of accusing and very little solution offering.
As a matter of fact, the absence of tangible economic policies was one of the highlights of Friday’s debate for me. Neither candidate seemed willing to table more than “principles” when it came down to getting the nation’s financial sytem back on track. It was as if they feared stumbling, preferring to wait for a White House/Congressional bill to emerge before weighing in more specifically. Senator McCain’s “I’d consider” spending freeze seemed like policy-making on the hoof but his opponent was even more vague.
Still, this is tricky territory for McCain. He has suffered poll wise since the crisis started and, with a Republican administration and Congress controlled by the GOP during 6 of the last 8 years, it is very difficult for him to either a) distance himself from the Bush record or b) to promise that he will be able to control a Congressional party with which his relations can best be described as cordial. History tells us that the public doesn’t believe the Republicans are caring stewards of a wayward economy (I refer honourable readers to 1992), and as selfish as voters may be they are struggling to see more tax cuts as the solution to this particular problem.
And there is a lot of anger.
Americans like to be victims and demonise those who prey on them. “Wall Street RIP” the NY Business section shouted this morning and that’s the fate many wish upon the “greedy” bankers and finance wizards who are seen to have imperiled the country’s finances.
And while this scares politicians (a particularly nervous species in even election year cycles), at least it offers them the chance to blame someone else. The public is not interested in any naval gazing regarding it’s own culpability in the mortgage mess ("how did you think you could afford 5x salary") and the Congress would rather discuss the failures of the existing system and the need for a new regulatory approach to financial services institutions and markets after 4 November.
This should all help Obama. For all of his recent populism, Senator Mc Cain has been a Washington player on economic issues for many years, sits on the powerful Commerce Committee and is tarnished by bad judgement in the 1980s regarding the regulation of the Savings and Loan industrty. His ability to convince voters he can steward a solution is a tougher task. He was much more convincing on Friday when demonstrating an impressive 25 years of foreign policy experience.
The realpolitik of Friday however was that both candidates held their own and had moments of looking presidential. This fact, that there wasn’t a clear-cut victor, is probably a win on points for Senator Obama. He has to convince undecided Americans he is able to lead, holding his own against the war weathered McCain in Mississippi could help him “get” those undecideds he needs to get over the top.
But, as an infamous NY Yankee once said, “it isn’t over till it’s over” and with 2 more Presidential debates to come, the only Vice Presidential debate this Thursday, the fall out of the bailout still to play out – not to mention the two wars the United States remains engaged in – the renowned “October surprise” could still change the game again. There are 36 days left in this seemingly endless campaign and yet we still seem very far from knowing who will swear the oath of office on 20 January. And, a campaign which in February looked like it might shepherd in a period of renewed reflection on America’s future has deteriorated into another Atwater/Morris/Rove Red vs Blue, Us vs Them attack ad fest where lofty ambitions are subsumed by misleading accusations and distorted presentations.
The promised change and the return of hope both nominees offered up when they started their quests isn’t audible in the wake of the dumb din of the 90 second spots most Americans are being bombarded with each night. Neither a week in Washington nor an evening watching the debate convinced me that either will be soon again anytime soon.