Racing for Dollars
A martian visiting the United States in the last few months might have had his cursory understanding of American politics challenged by the incessant media interest in how much money 2008 Presidential candidates have raised already. More attention was paid to the Obama vs Hillary cash contest than any substantative policy issue ($25 million vs $26 million, by the way). Quarterly campaign finance filings are the new polls, the new primaries. There seems to be a real danger that rather than moderating the influence of cash on candidacies, the new reporting rules are codifying the importance cash plays in the US political process generally and the Presidential nominating process in particular.
Mitt Romney, the seemingly carved from granite Mormon ex Governor of the Bay State, leapt to “serious” in the eyes of the pundits when he topped $21 million in the first quarter of ’07. Besides the fact that the permanent professional campaign observers were desperate for the McCain-Guiliani narrative to be spiced up (hence their latest interest in former Senator, still “Law and Order” TV star Fred Thompson’s flirtation with running), the interest in fund raising (on both sides of the partisan divide) reflects the very fundamental changes which are taking place in the primary election process.
Who’s On First?
The aforementioned Martian – like any other rational observer – might have been wondering already why a sparsely populated New England state, a small Midwestern farming state, a bastion of the old Confederacy and the centre of casino gaming have historically set the direction for the national Presidential election process. Not even the most myopic native of New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina or Nevada would attempt to claim that their population accurately reflects a cross section of America (a quick demographic analysis by race alone underlines this point) and yet they fight doggedly to remain at the front of the primary season
This time however, most of the rest of the country has decided that they are not willing to be – in essence – removed from the nominating process by coming in late Spring and early Summer. 20 states so far have moved their primaries or caucuses to the 5th of February 2008 – the new Super Tuesday.
And last week, pushing the envelope further, Florida Democrats decided – against the advice of the National Party - to move their election to January 29th, the same day as South Carolina. As the largest swing state in the country state representatives argue they should be part of selecting the party’s candidate, not an afterthought vote when the decision has already been made.
Short and Expensive
Historically, an unknown candidate could focus on the first four competitions – particularly Iowa and New Hampshire – do well there, build up some “brand awareness” and momentum and then gather speed as the process rolled into bigger states in early March.
The new front loaded system makes that much harder. Even if a Romney or an Obama do well early they are now faced with the daunting prospect of having to secure support in at least 20 states on 5 February, just a few weeks after New Hampshire. To do so will require an even greater dependence on the infamous TV ads which already define American politics for many – and which are very expensive.
The inevitable consequence of this is more fund raising, done earlier, amongst more people. In essence this will force potential candidates – especially those with low name recognition – think Tom Tancredo and Mick Huckabee – to start campaigning 18-24 months (instead of 12 ) before the first primary/caucus vote is cast. Equally, it will give greater importance to those issues which those early states care about the most. Interestingly this will probably mean more coverage for immigration – a big concern in both California and Florida – and climate change which has picked up legs as political issue in California. More talking about more controversial issues by more politicians.
One can only imagine the collective groan of American voters at the prospect of listening to Presidential politicking for an extra 12 months.