Reality check
Two reality checks this evening in Birmingham. The first from a long conversation with a Conservative front bencher. His verdict: any Brown bounce from Manchester was irrelevant, What matters is the Glenrothes by-election. Lose that to the SNP - as seems likely - then the horrible possibility of serious damage in Scotland will concentrate minds wonderfully in Labour ranks and Brown will be defenestrated come what may.
The other is the scene in central Brum this evening. As well as hosting the conference, Broad Street offers a strip of nighclubs and bars packed out with West Midlands youth on a Sunday night (do these people have no jobs to go to?). Odds-on that very few of them care tuppence for which party has the best policies to deal with the credit crunch: if they vote at all, it will be on gut instinct. The challenge for the politicians is connecting with that to make either ‘safety first’ or ‘time for a change’ the most appealing. Politics is frequently both very simple and hideously complex.
More tomorrow from Toryland.