Super Tuesday
Forget the Super Bowl. The Oscars can move over. For US political junkies this was the night to stay up till dawn to watch the results roll in. Yes, Super Tuesday had finally arrived, with more states voting at one time than ever before in one of the most exciting elections in a generation.
The evening started with symbolism it would be hard to make up: tornadoes heading for Clinton, Arkansas. Would the soothsayers be able to make predictions in an election where pundits so far had been off the mark?
The first result of the night came from Georgia, where Obama took the state with 88% of black voters and more white men than expected. Would this be a sign that the Edwards vote would move more towards Obama? As it turned out, yes. Obama ended the night with about half of white men voting for him, while Hilary got two thirds of Latino voters and a sizable majority of women.
Meanwhile on the Republican side, Mike Huckabee was taking everyone by surprise. Popular wisdom had reduced the Republican race down to two. But the Baptist maestro managed to pull out five states, and speaking halfway through the night made it quite clear he wasn’t getting out of the race till the end. It was an impressive showing from a candidate who’s provided some great entertainment. My personal favourite: when asked to give details of his economic plans, he replied “I can’t part the Red Sea, but I believe I can part the red tape”. As the evening went on, more and more of CNN’s finest were saying what an asset he’d be as Vice President in carrying Southern states, particularly if chosen by McCain who struggled in those areas. And the pressure from the Republican establishment for the maverick to make a compromise like that is likely to grow. Personally I think that would be a disaster for McCain. If he tries too hard to make nice with the “agents of intolerance” as he used to call them (Rush Limbaugh, James Dobson, we’re looking at you) then his presidential campaign will get tied up in knots and go into meltdown, just like it did six months ago. He needs to run as his own man in his own way if he’s going to be viable.
It was interesting that McCain didn’t do quite as well as expected and, had there been only one out of Romney and Huckabee, then he would have had a very, very hard time winning the nomination. But, at the end of the day, while that might make an interesting hypothetical, back in the real world the social conservatives and economic conservatives were split last night, and McCain had the race all but sewn up.
Back to the Democrats, and Missouri was one of the most gripping battlegrounds of the night. CNN had Clinton ahead by a good 6 points at the start of the evening, and this in a state that has only once in a hundred years failed to pick the eventual winner. But the cities were slower counting their votes, and in metropolitan areas Obama had the edge. He inched closer and closer and in the end took it by a whisker. Not that many delegates, but very handy bragging rights.
By four in the morning, it was clear that Obama was going to win more states, and probably edge the night, with delegate count almost split down the middle. But when, at around 6am, California moved into Hilary’s column, what everyone suspected was confirmed: this race was going to keep on going.
One final point to bring back down to earth those swept up in the excitement of this election. The CNN tickertape announced early in the night that the CIA had confirmed for the first time that they had indeed carried out waterboarding – the simulation of drowning which new Attorney General Michael Mukasey has refused to call torture. This being Super Tuesday a story that would have made headlines, didn’t get even a moment’s discussion. Burying bad news? As they used to say in the West Wing – take it out with the trash.