The London Race
I will never forget seeing Boris Johnson for the first time. He was drunk out of his head in white tie and tails chairing a debate at the Oxford Union of which he was President while a student at Oxford. I thought he was a buffoon then and nothing has happened since to make me change my mind.
So I find the idea of him being Mayor of London very scary. I think it will be extremely close, and Livingstone may just turn it around (see latest Ipsos MORI poll April 9 where Ken has a one point lead). It is one thing to tell a pollster that you will vote for Boris, another to actually put a cross on a ballot paper for him to run our capital city.
But he may just do it. And if it does happen, Livingstone will have lost the election rather than Boris winning it.
One of Livingstone’s problems is that he has been entirely unwilling to obey any of the laws of best practice in crisis management. He believes in the rightness of his cause and he will brook no opposition. The PR rule book says that when something goes badly wrong, you should: immediately show your concern; establish the facts asap; if something has gone wrong personally and immediately apologise for the mistake; and then explain what you’re going to do to put it right.
But with the whole Lee Jasper episode, Ken has ignored all of this. He has not been willing to accept that anything that has happened has been of concern and has even said he wants to give Jasper his job back asap.
He feels (and he is right about this bit at least) that his enemies at the Evening Standard, the Daily Mail and elsewhere have been deliberately searching for and storing up as much dirt on him as possible so that it can be released for maximum political impact in the run up to the May 1 elections. He doesn’t want to accept that his enemies have successfully drawn blood and wants to show his defiance.
Unfortunately for him, it has sent the message to voters that his friends and cronies may be corrupt and that he is not willing to clamp down on any of his associates. It has caused his opinion poll ratings for trustworthiness to plummet and that is probably the main reason for Boris’ current lead. Boris does not lead on the main policy areas like environment and transport and Ken even does well on the question of whether he has been a good Mayor for London. But because of the way Livingstone has handled the recent allegations, Boris is way ahead on honesty and trustworthiness (as well as on crime) and that is the reason for Boris’ lead in the polls. (And to be fair to Boris, he has at least buckled down and tried to take his candidacy seriously.)
If Boris wins it will initially be seen as a further kick in the teeth for Gordon Brown. But if he wins and then messes up badly as Mayor, as I would expect him to, what would that do for Cameron? It makes you wonder whether Cameron really wants Boris to win or is quietly petrified at the prospect and would prefer him to come an extremely close second.