The Scottish Question – The 2007 elections
The Scottish Parliament elections on 3 May, are already proving to be the most interesting and exciting since devolution.
By guest blogger Illiam Costain McCade, former head of Grayling Political Strategy in Edinburgh and now a freelance Scottish public affairs consultant.
Of course, as always, there’s plenty of time for much to change, for campaigns to take effect, mistakes to be made, and for early indications to prove a little premature; but the consistent picture emerging from the polls so far is that Labour is shedding support, and the SNP gaining enough to ensure that they will be the largest party - though by a narrow margin.
The Scottish electoral system pretty much ensures that no single party can form a majority government, and so the political make-up of the next Scottish Executive will be determined by numerical possibilities and the concessions parties are prepared to make in negotiations.
The Liberal Democrats have positioned themselves as the party to talk to and, in principle, are happy to talk to either the SNP or Labour, depending on the results of the election and the specifics of any deal that can be hammered out.
For the SNP, the biggest negotiating problem will be their policy on an independence referendum. The Liberal Democrats are fundamentally opposed to any such referendum, although the parties are agreed on securing more fiscal autonomy for the parliament. Can the SNP stomach ditching a key policy in exchange for power and a strengthened devolution settlement?
Although the first two Scottish Parliament elections produced a Labour/Lib Dem coalition, this is no foregone conclusion in 2007. Labour’s national pro-nuclear stance is distinctly at odds with the Lib Dem’s pre-manifesto document which leads with a commitment to oppose new nuclear build in Scotland. Can the Scottish Labour Party diverge from national party policy on this non-devolved issue in order to secure a coalition deal? The likelihood has to be that Labour would far rather do a deal with the Lib Dems than allow the SNP to do a deal with them.
Importantly, in Scotland, the First Minister is elected by Parliament. Each party nominates their leader and, eventually, the two leading candidates go head to head in a final vote. Worryingly for Labour, the current polls suggest that a Labour/Lib Dem coalition would not have sufficient representation to secure an overall majority, so Jack McConnell may need to rely on support from the Conservatives to secure a win over Alex Salmond in the run-off. (Or, put another way, the Conservatives may need to support Labour in order to ensure Alex Salmond doesn’t take the crown). This is a fascinating prospect – Scottish Tories voting for a Labour First Minister to keep out Alex Salmond.
So is Scotland heading for independence soon after the next election? The answer is almost certainly not. Although support for independence certainly seems to be growing, the increase in support for the SNP is also based on dissatisfaction with Labour – not just in Scotland, but in Westminster as well, and more particularly with Blair.
Nevertheless, if the SNP does beat Labour in the forthcoming election, or if it forms part the ruling coalition, this will undoubtedly place considerable pressure on Westminster to revisit the devolution settlement. The SNP may need to ditch any proposals for a referendum on independence in order to join the Lib Dems in forming the next Scottish Executive, but they will be undoubtedly be campaigning hard the devolution settlement to be re-opened in order to secure more fiscal powers. However, a Labour win, or Labour-led coalition, does not necessarily mean that the problem goes away.
The most interesting recent development in British politics, from the Scottish perspective, is the increase in support south of the border for Scottish independence, and the issues which drive that growing sentiment. The West Lothian Question, the Scottish domination of high office at Westminster and, more particularly, the oft-cited ‘subsidisation’ of Scotland through the Barnett Formula, all appear to be major irritants to English commentators and voters.
Gordon Brown, if he is the next Prime Minister, will want to do anything to leave the current settlement as it is. However, the pressure to address the iniquities of the Barnett Formula – and to address the ‘Scottish question’ which could potentially damage his chances against Cameron in the next general election - could well mean that Scotland will get more fiscal autonomy anyway; driven not by demand in Scotland, but by the need to address the perceptions and concerns of English voters. Potentially explosive times ahead.
Illiam Costain McCade is a freelance political consultant based in Edinburgh. He can be contacted on .