US: The Race Is On
If a week in politics is a long time, a few days in Washington DC - as I spent last week - can seem like a lifetime.
This is the most brutal of political market places. Who is up? Who is down? Trends, patterns, fads...only Madison Ave looks harder for the newest, hottest phenomenon.
And right now, the shooting star of American politics is Barack Obama...and if anyone doubted the impact his involvement would have on the 2008 campaign they only need to examine the rush by a handful of other candidates to enter the field or try to redefine already stalling candidacies in the wake of growing speculation that the junior Senator from Illinois is running. Since January 1 several candidates have announced or launched exploratory committees…
“Never underestimate ego” is an old adage that explains a lot about this field of prospective Presidents. I mean, I really do respect Chris Dodd the senior Senator from Connecticut...but if there is a clarion call from the American public for him to run for President I don’t hear it. And that is not to mention Tom “Who?” Vilsak (the Governor of Iowa), Senator Joe Biden of Delaware (who spent the last 18 years recovering from comparing himself to Neil Kinnock so he could run again, only to blow his launch day by suggesting that previous black candidates have not been “attractive, articulate and clean"), Rep. Dennis Kucinich, General Wes Clark and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (who on paper may be the best candidate) and is a likely for the VP slot but is also not very well known outside DC, Manhattan and Santa Fe.
Unless something spectacular happens right now it is a three horse race on the Dems side - Hillary, Barack and John Edwards. And, while Hillary will have a monster machine behind her and loadsa money, and Obama has momentum and sex appeal and they both are potential symbols (first black, first female nominee), Edwards is to be feared.
There is no adequate preparation for being President of the United States. Equally there is no other way to become good at running for President than doing it. John Edwards is the only one who has. Hillary was a candidate’s wife and the first lady (and that is not the same), Obama is a 2 year Senator. In essence, Edwards has been running since 2003.
While Hillary is familiar with the white hot light of media scrutiny this remains a different level of pressure. Many believe that she is an inevitable nominee, the frontrunner and - with Bill by her side - will be very hard to stop. But she has not quelled or quieted the “can’t win” concerns. She is deepely disliked in many bits of the country, her negatives run high and at a time when Americans seem to have “Bush fatigue” she is a polarising figure.
Obama’s appeal is his youth and freshness. He speaks of unity, bipartisanship and cooperation. He talks of bringing people together. People of all races hear the familiar ring of other great black orators - Dr. King in particular. But, in these troubling and dangerous times, times where Americans feel unsafe and have watched their stature and power questioned around the world, he is a novice, a rookie, a freshman. Just wet behind the ears, can the post 9-11 America trust the car keys to someone so inexperienced?
So last week’s most interesting development from my perspective was to watch the Edwards’ strategy to differentiate himself start to play out. Appearing on Russert’s influential ‘Meet the Press’ programme, he used his status as an outsider (he gave up his Senate seat to run in ‘04) to challenge the sitting Senators to do more on Iraq than “pass meaningless resolutions” and urged them to stop the possibility of new money for new troops.
On healthcare, he talked about and then made public details of a new universal plan based on repealing many of the Bush tax cuts and actually raising taxes for those earning over $200k. He questioned whether he would support future free trade agreements because of the cost to American jobs and spoke of the ongoing need to repair New Orleans. He took a position on gay marriage (non-committal rather than the 2004 Democratic position which was in favour) which will be questioned by activist groups in the Democratic Party, but reflects much of mainstream America’s perspective.
Edwards’ increasing populism is seen by some as a move left - he is heavily courting unions - to win early primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. But American populism - with its insularity and domestic focus - is more complicated than that, harder to pin down on any ideological spectrum. John Edwards has learnt from his loss in 2004. He knows there are many voters floating around on issues looking for solutions not just rhetoric.
Rather than just push “messages” he has decided to table specifics and force his opponents to react. Not having to vote in the Senate frees him to do this. It may not get him nominated - anything can happen in 18 months - but it is going to make life difficult for his opponents. Hillary is powerful and Obama is hot but Edwards is not to be underestimated.
Make no mistake, this wil be a very interesting race and a race it will be.
Coming next: Who wants to be VP? Who will be the next Dick Cheyney?