Gordon, Dave, Ming and the next election
The Tories have been over ten points ahead in several recent polls. Breakthrough or blip?
The Polls
These polls have been notable in that they have been significantly different to the majority of polls in the last six months which have consistently shown the Tories with a 4-7 point lead over Labour.
But interestingly, they are closer to the polls where voters are asked who they would prefer between Brown and Cameron. When asked not about the party they will vote for, but about who they would vote for if Brown was PM, the polls for the last year have consistently shown Cameron ahead by between 7-13 points – a far bigger lead.
Could Blair’s departure now be so close that voters have already taken into account Brown taking over?
Problems for the Tories
Either way, the Tories need to regularly be posting over 40 per cent in the polls and a consistent lead of at least 8-12 points to feel any kind of confidence about winning the next election. They have an electoral mountain to climb. Winning enough seats to deprive Labour of an overall majority is perfectly possible; becoming the largest single party is achievable but more difficult; but winning outright would require a seismic electoral shift. It is not impossible, but it will be very difficult for Cameron.
The other huge factor in all of this is how much of a bounce in the polls will Gordon Brown receive if he becomes PM? People think of someone very differently when they are actually in charge. Plus, he will take the fight to Cameron and at some point (although maybe not until the end of this year), the Tories may actually agree some detailed policies for Brown to get stuck into.
Equally, the Tories have to start winning some seats in the North of England and in Scotland and Wales. They are a long way off doing that yet but we will find out more in the May local elections.
Issues for Brown
But, the Tories do have some strong cards to play. Middle England hates Brown in a way they simply do not feel for Blair. They see Brown as raising their taxes and being an old fashioned tax-and-spend Labour Chancellor. Brown has the effect of increasing the Tory vote.
This is one of the many reasons why arch new-Labourites like Milburn, Byers and now Charles Clarke want David Miliband to put his hat in the ring. Miliband is coming under increasing pressure from colleagues to stand and while he is still saying no at present, he is not saying it as emphatically as he was at the end of last year. The betting has to be, though, that Miliband is unlikely to stand unless Brown seriously falters before June as Miliband won’t want to divide the party and then lose badly. If he does not stand, then he is guaranteed major jobs in the Cabinet during Brown’s tenure and he would then be the likely successor to Brown in future.
Plus, the Tories are raising money successfully. Labour remain mired in the cash for honours scandal and donors have fled, leaving them far more reliant on union funding. That is a great irony as it was Blair who planned to release the party from reliance on union funding by getting Lord Cashpoint (Levy) to tap up wealthy individuals.
And the Tories are currently laughing all the way to the ballot box at UKIP’s current travails which removes pressure from the Tory right flank and makes it easier for Cameron to remain in the centre ground.
A hung Parliament?
All of this means that a hung Parliament is a highly plausible outcome of the next election, the first time that has been the case since 1992. That will be potentially very good for turnout but will add to the unpredictability as the British electorate do not much like hung Parliaments and so can surge one way or another in the late stages of a campaign (as they did in 1992).
Would Ming go into coalition with Cameron? No. Getting into bed with the Tories would split the Lib Dems down the middle and Ming went out of his way to reject this option in his recent Lib Dem spring conference speech.
Would Ming shore up his friend Gordon Brown? In the same speech he suggested that he might if his conditions are met and that those conditions may not include PR. But it is very early days for this and propping up a Labour government that has lost its overall majority may not be the best course of action for the Lib Dems, particularly if it means ditching PR. Rather than a formal coalition, co-operation on a range of issues is perhaps more likely.
If the Lib Dems did co-operate with a minority Labour government, it may well not last that long. If it broke down or if the Tories were the largest party, the Lib Dems may just vote on each measure on its merits. That would mean that a minority government – led by either Brown or Cameron – would struggle on for a few months before having to call a further general election in the same year as happened in 1974. In Feb ’74 Heath lost his overall majority and Labour formed a government as the largest single party. Labour then called a further general election in October that year and went on to win a tiny overall majority.
So the next election will be unpredictable and fascinating. But will the result be reminiscent of 1992 when a Prime Minister without a direct mandate went on to win a fourth term? Or like 1974 when a hung Parliament led to a minority administration and a further election in the same year?