Iowa, the winners and the losers
The phoney war is over. Voting, caucusing to be more precise, has finally started. And not a moment too soon, I have to say. Over the course of several recent trips to the US I have to admit to fatigue at Presidential primary politics. The seemingly scores of candidates have been on the road for over a year, there have been dozens of debates already, counting money has become the new spectator sport for Beltway insiders and Iowa – originally elevated by Jimmy Carter’s insurgency campaign in 1976 – has been lifted to a harbinger status which is hard to fathom when you compare this small Midwestern state’s demographics to the rest of the United States. I also admit to being concerned over whether any of these candidates are best placed to lead the US right now. More importantly, like many others I had become bored with constant media speculation over what might happen and itchy for the game to get going.
And five hours after the game finally started we are reminded that in this sport we are still regularly surprised. Tonight was historic. More on that later.
Much has been written about “the responsibility Iowans have felt about these caucuses” and boy did they show it. As I’m writing CNN, the NY Times and the Washington Post are reporting that almost 230,000 Democrats turned out for their caucuses. That is almost double the 2004 turnout and, more significantly for the Republicans, in a 50-50 state it is almost 100,000 more participants than they could mobilise.
“We are choosing hope over fear, unity over division and we are sending a powerful message that change is coming to America” Barack Obama boomed from the stage just now, in a cadence that reminded me of the first time I heard Martin Luther King all those years ago, and his victory and Governor Mike Huckabee’s suggest that Iowans indeed want change considered. Is this representative of America’s mood generally? Time will tell.
As the dust clears it is already obvious these victories have changed the dynamics of the 2008 election.
I still do not think that Mike Huckabee is a likely nominee – he is too divisive within his own party (too liberal on economic issues), his Arkansas record has a number of ethical hiccups and his relationship with Death Row pardons hurts him with part of the GOP base. And yet, he is charismatic, personable and knows how to connect with voters. People who meet him like him. Tonight – in victory - he sounded positive. He spoke of bi-partisanship, he spoke of one country, he distanced himself from negative campaigning and he came across as someone who wanted to bring people together. Without much money and a shoestring campaign organization he now faces the challenge of shifting from the focused retail politics of Iowa and New Hampshire to the jet fuelled hurly burly of almost 30 contests in just over 30 days.
John Edwards did well beating Senator Clinton tonight but really needed to win to get the propulsion his campaign needed. New Hampshire is not his best state and he doesn’t have a lot of money left.
Speaking of money, Mitt Romney is the night’s second biggest loser. Having based his entire campaign strategy - and millions of dollars - on early victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, his second place finish is a real disappointment. He must do well in New Hampshire where John McCain is his principal opponent (more on McCain in my next entry, but keep your eye on him). Early entrance polling suggests Romney’s negative attack ads and flip flopping hurt him in Iowa. That doesn’t bode well in New Hampshire where there is similar impatience with such an approach.
The big loser, of course is Hillary Clinton. The “inevitable” candidate, running like an incumbent, with the infamous Clinton machine and all of it’s connections behind her she cannot be happy with a third place finish. Bill looked devastated standing behind her and the Clinton camp will be scrambling right now to figure out how to re-calibrate her campaign. Standing on the podium just now, unable to acknowledge Senator Obama’s victory (she lost by nine points!), she seemed small and defensive speaking of how “high the stakes” are, almost Bush like in warning us of dangers that might lie ahead if we do not elect some one ready to govern on Day One. There was no grace, no warmth, no humanity.
Surrounded by many brilliant strategists and even more well-organised managers she now has to take on Obama’s message of hope and change directly. She must bring personal passion back into her justication for running. She has to get people to believe in her beyond competence, intellect and experience. In five days she has to convince the burghers of New Hampshire that there is a compelling reason for her to be President, an inspiring reason. In Iowa, she clearly failed to convince people that she was a candidate of change.
Tonight, inspiration trumped cynicism. Hope won.
And Barack Obama was the big winner. A black man winning a state 93% white. A first term Senator beating the famous wife of a more famous ex-President. A man winning more votes from women than his female opponent. A candidate increasing dramatically the turnout of his party amongst groups notorious for not voting (the 18-25 year olds). Fifty-seven percent of under 30 voters went for Obama. Independents preferred him as well.
Obama will now go forward with tremendous momentum. A victory in New Hampshire this coming Tuesday would be a body blow to Senator Clinton. Another in South Carolina would make him look difficult to beat.
Listening to Obama just now you did feel you were watching a historic moment. Political rhetoric isn’t what it used to be and none of us expect elevating speeches anymore. But Obama’s speech tonight was special. It wasn’t partisan. It was all about hope over cynicism. Unity over division. There were bits of Bobby Kennedy and others where I thought I was listening to Ronald Reagan. I still have my concerns over whether he is experienced enough to be President, but after tonights performance I don’t think many doubt he is now a serious candidate for the Presidency.