Sleepwalking to Independence?
A guest blog on the results of the Scottish Parliamentary elections by Illiam Costain McCade, former Head of Grayling Political Strategy in Edinburgh and now a freelance Scottish public affairs consultant.
Despite the fiasco of the multiple voting systems, the confusion in the polling booths, and the technical problems with the count, May 3rd 2007 will nevertheless be remembered as a historic day for politics in Scotland. The Labour party has not been beaten in an election in Scotland for over half a century and, more importantly, they have never before been beaten into second place by the SNP.
However, entering the polling stations on Thursday morning with the intention of voting SNP for the first time would have been no easy task. Labour had been consistently telling the electorate that voting SNP would lead to the break-up of Britain and the collapse of the Scottish economy. All the press had enjoined in these warnings for months and, on the day, the ‘red tops’ in particular were reminding us that ‘A vote for the SNP will put Scotland’s head in the noose’ (The Sun). So, as well as fundamentally changing the political map of Scotland on May 3rd – did we also deliberately, or unwittingly, herald the immediate demise of Great Britain?
Of course, the SNP have been quite clear all along that a referendum on independence was a core policy commitment. But despite warnings from Labour that the Nats would initiate the break up of the Union within 100 days, the SNP’s stated preference is to hold a referendum in 2010 or 2011.
Why the wait? Well, Alex Salmond has stated that the SNP would first like to prove that they are capable of governing Scotland.
This is, of course, entirely fair and reasonable. However, he is of course also aware that all the polls on the issue of independence tend to show a significant majority would vote against it (except, perhaps, in England). Four years of SNP government might help swing things a little, but more to the point, Alex is also conscious of the fact that a Conservative victory in the next General Election (probably in 2009/10) would act as an even greater incentive for the left-leaning Scots to decide to go their own way.
Whatever the timing, the key point that many voters seem to have realised is that a vote for the SNP is not a vote for independence, but a vote for an opportunity to vote on the issue.
However, the referendum policy may well prevent any coalition deal with the Lib Dems, which would allow the SNP to form a majority administration. The Lib Dems have been clear all along that they oppose independence (and, for that matter, a referendum on it) – so much so, in fact, that they won’t even meet the SNP to discuss a possible coalition unless the SNP ditch the policy first.
A principled stand? Perhaps; but it also seems a little incongruous for a party which has signed up to the Scottish Constitutional Convention’s Claim of Right which states “We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of government best suited to their needs…”
Regardless of whether or not there is eventually a coalition, with anti-referendum MSPs outnumbering pro-referendum MSPs by 79 to 50, the Scottish Parliament won’t be supporting any legislation paving the way for a referendum. Scotland won’t get a chance to file for divorce at any time before the next Scottish Parliament elections.
Illiam Costain McCade is a freelance political consultant based in Edinburgh. He can be contacted at: